Here is an update concerning the heavy rain threat Saturday into Sunday.  Also included are notes regarding gusty winds expected Saturday into Sunday.

Overview:

WHAT: 

• SLIGHT to MARGINAL RISK of excessive rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts which due to antecedent saturated soil conditions, may lead to isolated areas of flash flooding. 

• Wind gusts 25-35mph, possibly higher in any heavier t-storm. Winds of this magnitude are below our advisory criteria, but are notable because they could have impacts on high profile vehicles (such as Mardi Gras floats).

WHEN:  

• Heaviest rains and threat of isolated flash flooding are expected Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Very light showers may linger into Monday.

• Winds are expected to increase primarily in the afternoon/evening hours lasting thru early Sunday morning.

WHERE:   

• The entire area, but focus will be on the Slight Risk area primarily along/south of I-10/12 and across the Pearl River basin.

• Gusty winds will be possible across the entire area - however greater confidence for higher wind gusts will be along coastal areas of SE LA and southern MS.

CONFIDENCE:  

• We are very confident in widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" of rain, with isolated higher amounts. We have moderate confidence that the heavy rain will lead to at least isolated impacts.

• We are very confident in the occurrence of gusty winds in excess of 25 to 35mph, with locally higher gusts possible in any heavier t-storm.

Impacts:

• Intense rain rates and saturated antecedent soil conditions may lead to isolated spots of flash flooding. 

• Possible ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas - especially in Slight Risk area. 

• Strong, gusty winds could impact high profile vehicles.