NWS Heavy Rain/Wind Update, February 2, 430 PM
Here is an update concerning the heavy rain threat Saturday into Sunday. Also included are notes regarding gusty winds expected Saturday into Sunday.
Overview:
WHAT:
- SLIGHT to MARGINAL RISK of excessive rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts which due to antecedent saturated soil conditions, may lead to isolated areas of flash flooding.
- Wind gusts 25-35mph, possibly higher in any heavier t-storm. Winds of this magnitude are below our advisory criteria, but are notable because they could have impacts on high profile vehicles (such as Mardi Gras floats).
WHEN:
- Heaviest rains and threat of isolated flash flooding are expected Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Very light showers may linger into Monday.
- Winds are expected to increase primarily in the afternoon/evening hours lasting thru early Sunday morning.
WHERE:
- The entire area, but focus will be on the Slight Risk area primarily along/south of I-10/12 and across the Pearl River basin.
- Gusty winds will be possible across the entire area - however greater confidence for higher wind gusts will be along coastal areas of SE LA and southern MS.
CONFIDENCE:
- We are very confident in widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" of rain, with isolated higher amounts. We have moderate confidence that the heavy rain will lead to at least isolated impacts.
- We are very confident in the occurrence of gusty winds in excess of 25 to 35mph, with locally higher gusts possible in any heavier t-storm.
Impacts:
- Intense rain rates and saturated antecedent soil conditions may lead to isolated spots of flash flooding.
- Possible ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas - especially in Slight Risk area.
- Strong, gusty winds could impact high profile vehicles.
